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 Arabs & Muslims in America and the 2024 Elections

It is no longer a secret to senior political and military analysts and specialized research centers that the 2024 U.S. elections hold particular importance, especially concerning the choices of the American voter and their reflections on the turbulent Middle East. Over the past year, this region has witnessed shocking scenes to the entire world. A militant faction governing the Gaza Strip, driven by de facto power, decided to enter a new chapter of conflict—a continuation of the century-long mythological wars, this time carrying a historical and religious narrative backed by a coalition known as the "Axis of Resistance." They confronted their equally extreme counterpart on the other side, deeply immersed in religious and historical narratives and fiercely opposed to any meaningful peace process. With unprecedented international support in the first hours and days, Benjamin Netanyahu and his government turned the situation into an open and bloody war, outwardly framed as self-defense against the arms of the Axis that declared its intent to eliminate Israel. Beneath this, however, was an open-ended war on multiple fronts aimed at achieving absolute victory—financial and military costs to be borne by the United States and a Democratic administration not aligned with Netanyahu's views. This was all aimed at drawing new borders for a new Middle East that mirrors dreams Netanyahu outlined in his book, A Place Among the Nations.

No one in the Middle East doubts the significance of Israel to the U.S., given that Israel is considered America’s most reliable ally and the cornerstone of U.S. influence and interests in the region—this is an undeniable strategic constant. Both the Republican and Democratic parties adhere to this belief. However, what differentiates Netanyahu’s era from his predecessors' is that regardless of whether the U.S. administration was Republican or Democratic, the U.S. was always able to set limits on the ambitions of Israeli governments. No Israeli prime minister before Netanyahu had strayed so far beyond those boundaries. Netanyahu, who grew up in the U.S. and is intimately familiar with the intricacies of American politics and the nuances between the Republican and Democratic parties, knew how to navigate the gray areas. This became evident during the last two decades, particularly under Barack Obama’s administration, which was known for its liberal policies. Netanyahu openly opposed the Iran nuclear deal, giving a speech in Congress in direct defiance of Obama. He later intervened in U.S. elections in support of Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Netanyahu managed to do what no other Israeli prime minister had ever done—he influenced Trump, an outsider to the deep state, who won the 2016 election with the backing of pro-Israel lobbies. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal, moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognized the Golan Heights as Israeli territory, and introduced the so-called "Deal of the Century," which was essentially Netanyahu’s blueprint for resolving the Palestinian issue while opening bilateral relations with Arab countries. Netanyahu achieved all this during Trump’s single, highly controversial term in office.

The 2024 U.S. elections come amid this tumultuous climate in the Middle East, presenting two clear options for American voters concerning Middle Eastern issues. The first option is represented by Kamala Harris, who has moved even further left than Biden’s administration, which is already frustrated with Netanyahu’s policies. Harris’ stance can be summarized as: "Israel has the right to defend itself, but Netanyahu’s ambitions for absolute victory on all fronts, with U.S. participation, are unrealistic. The U.S. is not interested in fighting wars in the Middle East for Netanyahu’s sake, and Netanyahu’s policies are seen as the root cause of all these complications." Harris supports a political settlement, including the revival of the Iran nuclear deal and renewed negotiations toward a two-state solution, which she considers the cornerstone of Middle East stability. The second option is represented by Donald Trump, whose approach can be summarized as: "Give Netanyahu a free hand in the Middle East to pursue his ambitions for absolute victory and even expand Israel’s borders, which Trump sees as too small. Trump promises greater financial and military support than what Biden’s administration has provided, and he is willing to involve the U.S. militarily if Netanyahu’s interests require it."

These are two crystal-clear choices, shaped by Netanyahu’s personal ambitions. It’s now certain that pro-Israel lobbies are rallying behind Trump’s candidacy, aiming to complete what was started during his first term. Netanyahu’s reluctance to agree to a prisoner exchange deal in Gaza, which could have halted the fighting temporarily, reflects his accurate reading of the wide American public’s desire to see the Israeli killing machine stop in Gaza—something that would definitely boost the Democrats' chances against Trump. Instead, Netanyahu shifted focus to Lebanon, using all his cyber, espionage, and aerial capabilities to strike Hezbollah with full force, diverting the main war effort to the north under the banner of returning northern residents to their homes. This could have been achieved with less cost if he had halted the violence in Gaza. However, Netanyahu accomplished several goals in one move: he maintained the cohesion of his government, preventing Hamas from claiming any victory, dealt deadly blows to Hezbollah, and—most importantly—added more burdens on the Democrats and their presidential candidate, denying them the opportunity to enhance their chances in the elections. All of this plunges the region into further complexities as Netanyahu waits for his ideal candidate, Donald Trump, to return to power and help him realize his vision. If that doesn’t happen, Kamala Harris should prepare for four years of firefighting, dealing with the crises Netanyahu has created and the fronts he opened without closing them.

As the presidential candidates' chances tighten, particularly in swing states, the Arab and Muslim vote becomes crucial in tipping the balance. The choice to vote for Trump is no longer ambiguous, nor is the option to vote for a third candidate or abstain from voting. In all these cases, the outcome is effectively support for Donald Trump, with all its potential catastrophic consequences for the future of the Middle East. Will the Arab and Muslim vote play a pivotal role in creating change in America?

The political fraud machine in Israel, led by Netanyahu for 30 years, fiercely resisting the peace process and destroying every opportunity for peace, is closely connected to the political fraud machine in the U.S., where Donald Trump reigned for four years and now seeks another four. Together, they have, and will continue to, provide the extreme right with the necessary narratives to survive. Woe to a world ruled by madmen, frauds, and delusional individuals chasing a false paradise, as described by Mark Manson in The Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fck*, where he wisely states: "Greatness is just an illusion; it is our false magic paradise."