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 Donald Trump's Chaos and the Fires in the East

In just a few hours, early indicators of the results of the presidential marathon for the White House, currently underway in the United States, will emerge. Political analysts agree that this election is the most bizarre and complex in U.S. history: a race between a former president running for the third time in American elections—a historic precedent—after his 2020 defeat by Democrat Joe Biden. Trump has yet to acknowledge those results and deeply regrets leaving the White House, even encouraging people to doubt the results in an unprecedented event in American history. This prompted his supporters to storm the Capitol on January 6, 2021, resulting in deaths and injuries, leaving America shocked and almost unraveling the world's leading democracy. Coming from the world of business and showmanship, Trump is one of the most controversial figures globally. He commands a massive following who believe in him wholeheartedly, even when he repeats baseless rhetoric. He imposed himself on the Republican Party through his personal fan base, despite many GOP leaders' reluctance and warnings about his risks. He has forced several opponents to adopt his views, including his vice-presidential pick, conservative figure James Vance. Trump survived an assassination attempt during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, a state he described as corrupt. He openly expresses his animosity towards Islam and Muslims, yet he is accepted in some of their circles. He is hostile to minorities yet enjoys support from some minority groups, boasts of his friendship with Putin, and has imposed more sanctions on Russia than any other leader; meanwhile, Russia quietly hopes for his return to the White House.

Trump also met North Korea’s leader, a notorious adversary of the West, yet failed to dissuade him from advancing destabilizing programs in the region, sparking concern among U.S. allies. He claims he could end the Russia-Ukraine war in a day, which alarms U.S. allies, and pledges to extinguish Middle East conflicts—though he encouraged Netanyahu to push the war forward while chastising Biden for placing additional restraints on Netanyahu.

Facing a seemingly endless series of lawsuits and scandals, Trump remains a presidential candidate, now facing a middle-class woman from a minority background, Biden’s 2020 VP pick, theoretically to his left. She suddenly finds herself facing Trump with his arrogance and audacity three months before an election race requiring more than a year of preparation after Biden withdrew under heavy pressure from Democratic leaders, following a lackluster debate performance against Trump. Democratic leaders, led by Barack Obama, have hurriedly rallied behind her out of necessity and a lack of viable options suitable for an unprepared moment.

She struggles to find a distinct approach from Biden’s administration as she is, willingly or not, the political heir to all of Biden’s decisions, for better or worse. She has tried to walk a thin line concerning the current Middle Eastern crisis, avoiding the Republican Party’s celebration of Benjamin Netanyahu. Her body language and statements following her meeting with Netanyahu revealed a deepening rift wider than that of Biden. Yet, Arab and Muslim Americans are demanding more assurances from her to take action against Israel’s government. However, they know she can do little more, and it is unlikely she will secure the level of support Biden had in 2020. In effect, they may inadvertently benefit Trump, whose administration was one of the most favorable to Israel, benefiting Israeli interests at the expense of Palestinian and Arab rights.

Both openly and covertly, most world leaders are on edge, awaiting the election results. Western leaders will be the first impacted by a potential Trump return, which would weaken the NATO alliance that Biden had painstakingly rebuilt. Trump’s first term had left the alliance fragmented, but Biden’s repair efforts proved successful, particularly in confronting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, maintaining Ukraine’s cohesion as a state, and keeping Russia contained within a controlled area. Meanwhile, the Middle East—raging with fires along the Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran fronts, with ongoing threats of escalation—awaits U.S. intervention. Biden’s administration has managed to curb the regional tensions to an extent, preventing Israel, Washington’s key Middle Eastern ally, from facing these threats alone. Trump, on the other hand, would likely encourage Netanyahu to go to any lengths to destabilize the region, further burdening Biden's administration to quell conflicts in time for Trump to return to a more manageable landscape.

The American public today, with their votes, will not only determine the future of the U.S. but the world at large. While many see this statement as an exaggeration, there’s reason to believe that should the American people choose Donald Trump, it would mean chaos in every sense. Political retribution will dominate domestically, while the U.S. will retreat inward, leaving the world to fend off new crises, especially the Middle East and Ukraine. Meanwhile, China could seize the opportunity to resolve its ambitions with force. Trump’s promises to extinguish global conflicts may turn into mere illusions. If Kamala Harris is chosen, however, the U.S. must brace for a lengthy bout of Trump-fueled chaos, as he sows doubts about election integrity reminiscent of his 2020 “stolen election” rhetoric. However, U.S. law enforcement agencies appear better prepared this time around, offering a glimmer of hope for global relief and a pathway to find political solutions to the fires raging worldwide.