Jordan: The Blessings and Curses of Geography
The American geopolitical writer Robert D. Kaplan once noted the profound influence of geography, emphasizing its ability to foster thriving societies in regions free of border conflicts and external threats, or conversely, to curse nations with endless turmoil. Many have similarly argued that history is the child of geography, leading to the development of geopolitical sciences, which analyze how leaders can harness geography to advance their nations or, alternatively, spiral into perpetual conflict, often ending in ruin. Historical examples abound.
Following the Sykes-Picot Agreement after World War I, which divided the Ottoman Empire’s spoils between Britain and France, the Arab world was fragmented into states, borders, and spheres of influence under mandates. This arrangement placed Jordan and Palestine under British mandate in 1922, as ratified by the League of Nations. The mandate also considered the 1917 Balfour Declaration, wherein British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour promised Lord Lionel Rothschild, a Zionist leader, a "national home for the Jewish people" in Palestine. This promise materialized in 1948 after the British mandate ended, Israel was established, and the Palestinian Nakba ensued. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were displaced, fleeing to remaining Palestinian territories (the West Bank and Gaza), Syria, Lebanon, and the newly established Jordan in 1946.
The territories of Palestine that Israel did not initially control fell under Jordanian administration but were lost during the 1967 war, becoming occupied by Israel. Despite the Oslo Accords in 1994, Israeli control persisted, and the agreement’s framework is now being dismantled, effectively reestablishing direct occupation.
The Modern Jordanian State and Regional Dynamics
Modern Jordan and Israel emerged almost simultaneously under British tutelage. Britain envisioned a cooperative relationship between the two nascent states, but stark differences in their environments and the expansionist nature of Israel made peaceful coexistence unattainable. After the 1967 war, Jordan supported Palestinian resistance operating from the Jordan Valley, leading to the pivotal Battle of Karameh in 1968. The Jordanian-Israeli border became a theater for Palestinian resistance operations until the Oslo Accords in 1994. These accords led the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) into peace negotiations, followed by Jordan signing the Wadi Araba Treaty with Israel in 1996.
Jordan’s leadership adopted pragmatic politics, leveraging its geographic position to navigate crises and turn challenges into opportunities. Amid the Gulf Wars, Iraqi displacement, and the Syrian and Libyan conflicts, Jordan transformed adversities into economic opportunities, attracting capital fleeing conflict zones. Despite its scarce natural resources compared to its Gulf neighbors, Jordan developed a service-oriented economy, focusing on manufacturing and exports.
Jordan’s Strategic Importance and Regional Challenges
Israel’s adversaries, particularly Palestinian resistance movements and, more recently, Islamic factions, view Jordan as critical due to its geography and the demographic composition of its population, nearly 50% of whom are of Palestinian origin. This has made Jordan a fluctuating arena of calm and tension, reflecting the broader Israeli-Arab conflict. Israel and its Western allies also prioritize Jordan, supporting it militarily and economically, including stabilizing its currency through a dollar peg.
The current escalation in Gaza and its spillover into Lebanon has pushed Jordan into an unprecedented predicament. Growing domestic unrest and heightened public discontent have strained the Jordanian government, raising fears of destabilization. Some factions believe fomenting chaos in Jordan could shift the region’s power dynamics, overlooking the catastrophic consequences witnessed in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya—states that descended into chaos with no tangible benefits to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Iran, as the leader of the "Resistance Axis," has intensified efforts to gain a foothold in Jordan, offering economic incentives like water projects and increased Iranian tourism to bolster Jordan’s economy. However, Jordan’s leadership, wary of Iranian intentions, has rebuffed these overtures, perceiving them as attempts to establish an Iranian presence near Israel’s borders. After failing to sway the Jordanian regime, Iran turned to the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni group with significant popular support in Jordan, primarily among citizens of Palestinian descent. Despite ideological differences, Iran sought to align the Brotherhood with its resistance agenda.
Hamas, the Palestinian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, played a key role in forging these alignments. Recent operations targeting Israeli interests from Jordanian territory and the attack on the Israeli embassy signal growing Iranian influence. These developments are fueled by the shocking images from Gaza, which have mobilized Palestinians in Jordan, particularly those displaced by the 1948 Nakba and the 1967 war. Iran sees Jordan as a strategic card in its broader bid for regional influence, potentially leveraging the West Bank annexation plans to expand its presence in the Arab world.
The Road Ahead
Iran’s calculated timing for infiltrating Jordan’s political and social landscape poses unique challenges. Direct confrontation with Iran or its proxies, including prominent Muslim Brotherhood figures, is fraught with risks. Conversely, ignoring the threat of Iranian arms and networks in Jordan is equally perilous. Jordan’s strategy will likely involve intensifying border security to curb arms smuggling from Syria and Iraq and dismantling emerging cells. Public opinion will also be a crucial battleground, requiring adept management to counter external narratives.
The resolution of the Gaza war and the cessation of its harrowing imagery will likely define Jordan’s next steps. A carefully calibrated approach to internal and external pressures will determine whether Jordan can weather this storm.
Conclusion
Geography’s blessings and curses define nations. Jordan has historically turned these dualities into opportunities, earning respect from allies and adversaries alike. Its track record of resilience suggests it can overcome the current crisis, drawing on its pragmatic and strategic legacy.
End.
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