لحظة ادراك

 Necessity Permits Some Prohibitions

According to the Palestinian News Agency (WAFA), Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas issued a constitutional decree on November 27, appointing Rawhi Fattouh, the Chairman of the Palestinian National Council, as an interim president in the event of a vacancy in the Palestinian National Authority's presidency. The decree mandates that presidential elections must be held within 90 days to elect a new president. This decision sparked widespread debate in Palestinian, Arab, and international media spaces regarding its rationale, timing, and legality. In addition to speculative and irrelevant conclusions circulating on social media—often characteristic of the Palestinian context—this analysis attempts to contextualize the decision within current realities faced by the Palestinian leadership, the National Authority, and the broader Palestinian cause.

Here are the critical aspects:

1. The President’s Health and Age
   At 89 years old, President Mahmoud Abbas faces health challenges typical for his age, having required hospitalization multiple times. In this context, the possibility of a sudden presidential vacancy necessitates preparation, especially as he is most aware of his own capacity to fulfill his duties effectively.

2. Institutional Gaps in Governance
   The absence of elections for nearly two decades and the dissolution of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in 2006 following Hamas' armed coup in 2007 have left a void in governance. The PLC would normally assume temporary presidential responsibilities in the event of a vacancy. Currently, the only governing bodies available are the Palestine Liberation Organization's (PLO) National and Central Councils, which serve as the legal framework for addressing unforeseen leadership gaps.

3. Political and Security Context
   The Palestinian situation is at its most perilous juncture. Israel's far-right government has actively pursued policies to undermine the Palestinian Authority, further motivated by international arrest warrants against Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Historically, Israel has targeted Palestinian leaders, as evidenced by the suspected assassination of former President Yasser Arafat via polonium poisoning. This decision by President Abbas can be viewed as a preemptive measure to ensure legal and orderly leadership succession.

4. Clarity on Leadership Transition
   The decree addresses speculation about potential successors, emphasizing that the next Palestinian president will be elected democratically within 90 days of a temporary presidency by the National Council Chairman. This ensures there are no pre-determined appointments and encourages political factions to present candidates for open, democratic competition.

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Refuting Misinterpretations

In light of the above, several misconceptions must be clarified:

1. International and Regional Pressures
   Claims that this decision stems from international or regional demands for President Abbas' resignation are baseless. The decree unequivocally does not suggest a resignation. Furthermore, holding elections is nearly impossible under current conditions, including the devastation in Gaza, Israeli control over Jerusalem, and fragmented governance in the West Bank.

2. Calls for Reform
   Demands for reforms in the National Authority are detached from the current realities. Fundamental reforms require a functional state, free movement, and sovereignty over resources. Without these prerequisites, such demands remain theoretical.

3. Preventing a Specific Individual from Succeeding
   Speculation about preventing certain individuals, such as PLO Executive Committee Secretary Hussein Al-Sheikh, from assuming leadership is unfounded. Any successor must secure legal approval and public support through elections, making pre-emptive exclusions unnecessary.

4. Fatah Internal Conflicts
   The idea of internal Fatah rivalries for succession overlooks the complexities of the current political and security situation, which deter any leader from seeing this role as a prize rather than a heavy burden.

5. Preempting Donald Trump’s Re-Election
   Claims linking this decision to Trump’s potential return to the U.S. presidency reflect an exaggerated narrative of his influence. The Palestinian leadership has previously resisted Trump’s policies, including the "Deal of the Century," and his re-election is unlikely to drastically change the longstanding complexities of the region.

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Conclusion

Assertions linking the decision to exaggerated theories or speculative motives often disregard the intricate realities on the ground. While Trump's return or international pressures may influence discourse, they do not determine immediate Palestinian decisions. The decree represents a calculated step to stabilize leadership transitions amidst challenging and unpredictable circumstances.

End of Analysis