لحظة ادراك

The Fall of the Triad of Sacred Taboos

Both Israel’s ruling coalition and its opposition have erupted in outrage over the issuance of two arrest warrants by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who Netanyahu dismissed just two weeks ago. The uproar ranged from the President of Israel describing the issuance of the warrants as a "black day" to opposition leader Yair Lapid labeling it as a "victory for terrorism." Netanyahu himself called the move a "disgrace" and "immoral," joined by other political leaders in condemning the decision. Within hours, Israel’s leadership exhausted nearly every term in both political and non-political language to decry the warrants. Yet, the decision remains an official document issued by a reputable legal institution, which carries immediate legal and political ramifications.

These developments will undoubtedly influence the political stances of numerous states and international organizations. The aftermath of this legal action, along with its implications for Israel, the Palestinians, and the wider Arab and Islamic political systems, deserves close examination.

Implications for Israel

A Historic Blow to Israel's Sacred Narrative: For 76 years, Israel has painstakingly maintained three core narratives:
- First, presenting itself as a nation of historical victimhood and the Holocaust, deserving global solidarity.
- Second, positioning itself as the sole democracy and bastion of human rights in the Middle East.
- Third, upholding its image as a state governed by law amid a region perceived as chaotic and barbaric.
The ICC warrants challenge all three narratives. Israel now faces accusations of war crimes and genocide, transitioning from the image of a victimized nation to that of an oppressor. Its claim to democratic and human rights values is undercut by allegations of violating international laws in the most egregious ways.
Loss of Legitimacy in the Ongoing Gaza Conflict:
With these warrants targeting Israel's top leadership, the legitimacy of its military campaign in Gaza is severely undermined. Actions previously framed as "self-defense" under international law now risk being classified as unlawful aggression.
Erosion of International Support:
Israel anticipates a significant decline in global political backing, which will likely translate into economic repercussions and disruptions in military supply chains. This could directly impact Israel’s ongoing military operations in Gaza and southern Lebanon.
Netanyahu as a Liability:
Netanyahu is now not only domestically embattled with criminal charges but also internationally implicated in severe war crimes. This dual legal jeopardy makes him a liability for Israel. The nation will face mounting internal and external pressure to replace Netanyahu, not just as an individual but as a symbol of a political era that has become untenable.
Escalation as a Tactic:
Netanyahu has a history of turning crises into opportunities. It is not improbable that he will resort to further military escalation, seeking tactical victories to distract from domestic and international pressures. However, such maneuvers may yield only fleeting gains, failing to address the strategic decline in Israel’s position.
Targeting the Palestinian Authority:
The ICC warrants stem from cases filed by the Palestinian Authority (PA), leveraging its legal jurisdiction over Gaza. In retaliation, Israel may intensify punitive measures against the PA, further straining its already fragile institutions.

Implications for Palestinians

A Moral and Symbolic Victory:
The ICC's decision is a landmark achievement for the Palestinian cause, reinforcing its moral and humanitarian standing on the global stage. While immediate political benefits may be limited, the long-term impact strengthens the case for Palestinian justice and pressures Israel to reconsider its actions.
Increased Responsibility for the PA:
The PA must now navigate heightened expectations, including addressing armed factions in Gaza, such as Hamas, which is itself implicated in alleged war crimes. The ICC warrant for Hamas leader Mohammed Deif underscores this dual challenge.
Heightened Israeli Pressure:
The PA should prepare for intensified Israeli punitive measures, likely targeting its financial and political stability. Countering this will require broadening international and Arab support to alleviate these pressures.

Arab and Islamic States

A Critical Moment for Action:
The Arab and Islamic world faces a historic opportunity to leverage the ICC’s decision in mediating an end to the Gaza war and alleviating the humanitarian crisis in both Gaza and southern Lebanon.
A Renewed Push for Peace:
In the medium term, Arab and Islamic nations must capitalize on the shifting international narrative to advocate for sustainable peace solutions. Continued regional instability will only perpetuate cycles of violence and hinder development.
Unified Diplomatic Messaging:
States with normalized relations with Israel, as well as those considering such ties, must deliver a consistent message: peace is the only viable path forward. The current trajectory of expansionism and oppression is unsustainable.

The United States

Shifting Dynamics under Biden:
While the Biden administration has provided steadfast support to Israel, it has also expressed frustrations, including delays in arms shipments and calls for increased humanitarian aid. These signals highlight growing American discomfort with Israel’s conduct.
Awaiting Trump’s Return:
Netanyahu eagerly anticipates Donald Trump’s possible return to power, banking on his unconditional support. However, the ICC’s timing during this transitional period complicates any decisive U.S. response. Biden’s administration is unlikely to go beyond verbal condemnation, while Trump’s future policies remain speculative.

Global Impact

Binding Obligations for ICC Member States:
The 124 countries party to the Rome Statute are legally obligated to act on the ICC’s decision. While political realities may lead some to evade enforcement, Netanyahu’s international mobility will be severely restricted.
Opportunities for Change:
Major non-signatory powers may use this moment to advocate for political reforms in Israel, seeing Netanyahu’s removal as a step toward stability. This aligns with broader international interests in reshaping the Israeli political landscape.

Conclusion

Israel has missed a historic opportunity to shield itself by failing to initiate an internal investigation into the October 7 events and subsequent war crimes allegations. This misstep has inflicted unprecedented damage on its narrative of victimhood and moral high ground, leaving its image in tatters. To recover, Israel must embrace profound political and ideological shifts, abandoning expansionism and oppression in favor of genuine coexistence. Without such changes, both Israel and the region will remain trapped in a perpetual cycle of conflict.