لحظة ادراك

What Comes After the Silence of the Guns...?

At dawn on the 27th of October, a ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese government on the southern Lebanon front came into effect. This came after nearly 14 months of conflict on a support front opened by Hezbollah to back its ally Hamas in Gaza. The war in Gaza, waged by Israel, is still ongoing. It began with skirmishes and diversions targeting the Israeli army, involving an exchange of strikes a day after Hamas launched its October 7th attack. At that time, Israel was in a state of chaos, shock, and disbelief, piecing together the remnants of its pride and military superiority, which had been shattered by a movement that intelligence reports had classified as deterred and incapable of launching any attack against Israel in the foreseeable future.

This front did not achieve its intended purpose of providing support to Gaza. According to many observers, it even contributed to escalating the brutality of the war in Gaza. This was intended as a warning to Hezbollah leaders about what awaited them if they persisted in the conflict. Over time, the events on this front escalated. However, both sides agreed implicitly to maintain the so-called "rules of engagement," preserving the status quo until July 27th, when a Hezbollah rocket went off course and killed several Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israel responded two days later by assassinating Hezbollah Chief of Staff Fuad Shukr in southern Beirut, escalating the conflict to a new and more dangerous level, as warned by several military analysts.

Everyone familiar with the nature and risks of this conflict, both inside and outside Lebanon, advised Hezbollah to halt its actions on this front. All indicators and statements by Israeli war leaders foreshadowed unprecedented Israeli strikes against Hezbollah. Such strikes would turn southern Lebanon and southern Beirut into a devastated image similar to Gaza, armed with the justification that Hezbollah initiated this round of conflict. Israel sent clear messages through international envoys to Lebanon, stating that it would not remain silent for long about the displacement of thousands of Israelis from towns near the border, which are within range of Hezbollah's short-range missiles such as Katyusha, mortar, and Kornet rockets.

Hezbollah’s leadership, backed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, misread the situation entirely, refusing to halt the fire and decouple the Gaza and Lebanon fronts. This miscalculation led to unforeseen consequences for Hezbollah. On September 17th, Israel delivered a single strike that neutralized an estimated 4,000 Hezbollah members through a massive explosion targeting their pagers. The following day, another blow destabilized the party, representing an unprecedented security breach. This was followed by a series of airstrikes targeting first-, second-, and third-tier Hezbollah leaders, ultimately striking at the "crown jewel"—not just Hezbollah’s Secretary-General but the iconic leader of the entire resistance axis. A full-scale war ensued, with Hezbollah and its allies suffering devastating blows. One Hezbollah official admitted that such strikes would collapse even a fully equipped nation.

The party eventually regained some stability after appointing Naim Qassem as the new Secretary-General, succeeding Hassan Nasrallah, with Hashem Safieddine as the likely successor. However, the war continued, marked by destructive bombardment of Hezbollah’s popular bases in the south, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Beirut. Over a million Lebanese were displaced, infrastructure supporting Hezbollah was destroyed, and thousands of buildings were leveled. Israeli casualties, including residential damage and military personnel losses, were significant but incomparable to the devastation on the Lebanese side, especially for Hezbollah.

As is often the case in wars, they can be initiated with expectations and objectives, but their outcomes rarely align with the plans due to surprises on the battlefield. This leads to the question: What does the day after the war look like for the parties involved?

For Hezbollah:

It began the war with the goal of providing support and distraction, leveraging its deterrent arsenal against Israel, only to end in catastrophe at every level. It failed to aid Gaza, lost the majority of its leadership across all tiers, and saw its support base and a significant portion of Lebanese homes and businesses destroyed.
Hezbollah will likely be pushed away from the Lebanese-Israeli border, with much of its infrastructure destroyed. International oversight will make it difficult for the group to retain its arms within Lebanon, effectively ending its narrative of defending the Lebanese borders against Israeli aggression.
Despite these losses, Hezbollah is unlikely to acknowledge defeat. It will continue promoting the narrative that mere survival against Israel constitutes a victory. The group will strive to restore its pre-October 8th status quo by any means necessary.
Hezbollah must address its supporters’ growing questions, such as: Were the sacrifices worth the achieved outcomes, which remain invisible? Did Iran uphold its commitment to its ally, or did it prioritize its own interests? And what is the future of Hezbollah’s support base, which bore the brunt of these catastrophes?

For Israel:

Israel succeeded in setting Hezbollah back decades, far exceeding its initial expectations. Hezbollah presented Israel with a historic opportunity that it could not miss.
Israel weakened Hezbollah’s legitimacy as an armed force in Lebanon, ensuring its retreat from the border and destroying its infrastructure.
Israel dismantled the concept of "unified fronts" and struck a severe blow to Iran's most potent arm along its northern border.
The Israeli government will face domestic and international questions about whether the cost of the war justifies returning to UN Resolution 1701 with minor improvements and guarantees.

For Iran:

Iran is undoubtedly the biggest loser in this conflict. It is accused by Hezbollah supporters, adversaries, and Lebanese citizens of prioritizing its interests over its alliances. Iran also suffered the loss of the "crown jewel" of its resistance axis, a blow that will take years to recover from.
Iran ultimately supported the ceasefire agreement, helping the Biden administration achieve it, fearing that prolonging the war until Trump’s potential return to power would risk a broader conflict targeting Iran itself.

For the Arab World:

The Arab official stance will likely welcome the ceasefire. Arab countries must now play a direct role in organizing arms in Lebanon, electing a president, and forming a government free from Hezbollah’s influence. They will also need to assist in reconstruction efforts to curb Iran’s influence.

For the International Community:

Similar to the Arab stance, unified international efforts could help Lebanon overcome its crises. However, conflicting interests could perpetuate the status quo, laying the groundwork for the next war.

For Palestine:

No Palestinian with any sense can claim that Hezbollah’s northern front positively impacted the Gaza war. Despite their gratitude for Hezbollah’s sacrifices, Palestinians recognize that the supposed support was merely an illusion of security.

Conclusion:

Hezbollah and Iran lost this chapter of the conflict, with the collapse of the "unified fronts" concept. The ceasefire agreement allows Israel to operate freely in Lebanese territory and airspace for 60 days, while Hezbollah is given only seven days to withdraw under international supervision. The devastating toll on Hezbollah, including the destruction of its support base, unanswered questions, and lost leadership, leaves no doubt about the outcome of this war. Assertions to the contrary are nothing more than self-deception promoted by those perpetuating illusory victories.