لحظة ادراك

A Deal of Exchange Tinted with Death

 

Information is circulating in the media about intense efforts underway in the final hours to finalize a prisoner exchange deal, paving the way for a ceasefire in Gaza. The outline of the deal resembles the proposal by Joe Biden's administration, which entails a gradual process over 60 days. This would include a ceasefire and the exchange of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners for approximately 100 Israeli hostages, some of whom remain in Gaza—alive or deceased—since the events of October 7 and the ensuing military operations.

 

Unlike previous instances, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is spreading optimism about the deal, considering it essentially an Israeli-modified version of the original proposal accepted by Hamas. However, Netanyahu has embedded within the deal three "no's" as preconditions for its implementation:

 

No halt to the war—though a ceasefire is permissible.

No withdrawal from Gaza—though a redeployment of forces is possible.

No symbolic victory for Hamas—though the release of hundreds of prisoners deemed "non-dangerous" is acceptable, along with potentially releasing a limited number from this category, provided they are deported abroad.

Several factors support the possibility of executing such a deal, which were absent in previous phases. These are summarized as follows:

 

Israeli Government:

Netanyahu’s Perspective: Benjamin Netanyahu believes he has weakened Hamas to the point where it cannot reject the deal’s amendments. He bases this on the killing of Yahya Sinwar and the heavy losses Hamas has suffered in northern Gaza—particularly in its strongholds like Beit Lahia and Jabalia—which have been turned into vast areas of destruction by Israel’s war machine.

Ceasefire in Lebanon: Netanyahu assumes that with the halt in hostilities on the Lebanese front, Hamas anticipates that Israel will redeploy substantial forces from there to Gaza for a decisive final battle. This, in Netanyahu’s view, would further weaken Hamas, forcing them to relinquish their remaining bargaining chip: the hostages.

Failed Rescue Attempts: The Israeli military and intelligence agencies estimate that some hostages are still in northern Gaza. A primary objective of the recent military campaign was to free them by force, but this attempt failed disastrously. With troops now in close proximity, Netanyahu believes the hostages can only be recovered as lifeless bodies.

Political Considerations: The amended deal allows Netanyahu to maintain his far-right coalition government, avoiding its collapse—a threat previously posed by figures like Ben Gvir and Smotrich. He knows that relying on opposition parties for support would spell the end of his political career.

Trump’s Influence: While Netanyahu had no interest in granting Biden a political achievement, the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House changes the equation. Presenting the deal as a success aligned with Trump’s interests, even unofficially, could serve Netanyahu’s agenda, especially given Trump’s involvement through his appointed hostage affairs advisor, Adam Boehler, following Hamas’s release of a video showing hostages.

Hamas:

Erosion of Public Support: Hamas recognizes the severe strain on its popular base due to Israel’s actions, which have turned daily life into unbearable misery. The overwhelming calls for a ceasefire, along with public criticism and insults, inevitably influence Hamas’s decisions.

Dwindling Bargaining Power: Over time, the hostage issue is losing its potency. Israel continues to execute its plans in Gaza, laying infrastructure for a prolonged military presence. Meanwhile, Hamas loses hostages daily and expects to lose the rest as the military operations persist.

International Pressure: Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey are exerting heavy pressure on Hamas to demonstrate flexibility and accept compromises, given that the current circumstances are entirely unfavorable for the group. Further delays risk alienating its allies and diminishing its political and military foothold.

Trump's Return: The possibility of Trump’s return to power adds urgency. The leverage Hamas enjoyed under Biden is fading, and it faces the prospect of harsher conditions under Trump’s administration.

Obstacles to Implementation:

Despite the reasons favoring the deal’s execution, several obstacles stand in the way:

 

Netanyahu’s Intentions: Hamas is well aware that in Netanyahu’s view, a ceasefire does not equate to an end to the war. His ultimate objective remains the eradication of Hamas—militarily and politically. Who can guarantee that Netanyahu won’t resume military operations after a ceasefire?

Delayed Acceptance: If Hamas accepts a deal now that is similar to one it rejected six months ago, it must answer whether the people of Gaza paid an unnecessary price for Hamas’s miscalculations.

Palestinian Authority’s Role: The deal’s parallel discussions include forming a joint administrative committee between Hamas and Fatah, transferring control of the Rafah crossing to the Palestinian Authority under international supervision, and other arrangements that Hamas might find unpalatable. For instance, demands for the PA to cover the costs of 40,000 Hamas-appointed employees, including its military and security personnel, and to issue 400 diplomatic passports to senior Hamas members seem implausible.

Conclusion:

The international push—led by the U.S.—to achieve a prisoner exchange and ceasefire faces a sharp conflict of interests. While Israel seeks to eliminate Hamas, tactically needing the deal, Hamas views the exchange as essential for its political survival and continued control over Gaza. Amid this clash of strategies, the Palestinian people remain the fuel for a war that can only be resolved militarily—at a steep cost of blood, suffering, and destruction.