لحظة ادراك

Fish Soup and the Carpet Weaver

The Russian proverb says, “It’s easier to turn an aquarium into fish soup than to turn fish soup back into an aquarium.” This aptly describes the sentiments of two of the most alarmed figures on the planet when faced with the phrase “the day after the war.” These two are Benjamin Netanyahu and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Both are ready to hear or say anything—anything but that the raging fire in the Middle East has been extinguished. Why? Because that would immediately require answering a critical question: “What has this chapter of the conflict achieved for either side?” Or, phrased differently: “Where do the two sides stand now, after all the bloodshed, destruction, and chaos wrought upon the region?”

The Current Military Scene

From Israel’s perspective:
In practical terms, Israel’s military machine has inflicted unprecedented levels of death and destruction in Gaza, reoccupying the territory entirely and eliminating many of Hamas's key leaders. A similar scenario has played out in Lebanon, where Israel enforced a ceasefire under UN Resolution 1701 with accompanying guarantees. High-ranking Hezbollah leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, have been killed, and significant portions of the group’s arsenal and command structure have been destroyed.

In Syria, systematic Israeli strikes against Iranian, Hezbollah, and regime forces have paved the way for the rapid collapse of the Assad regime. This has led to the country falling under the control of armed groups, including those led by Ahmad al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. Meanwhile, Israel has expanded its control over the slopes of Mount Hermon, reneged on previous agreements, and dismantled much of Syria’s former military infrastructure. With his appetite now whetted, Netanyahu’s focus has shifted toward an even greater prize: the Iranian nuclear and missile programs, as he waits for Donald Trump to assume the U.S. presidency.

From the perspective of Iran’s axis:
The once formidable "Axis of Resistance" now appears fragmented, its arms broken. Hamas has suffered devastating losses and is facing its most difficult existential crisis since its inception. Clinging to the lifeline of approximately 100 hostages, Hamas endures its daily toll in hopes of survival. Hezbollah fares no better, reduced to holding onto its arms south of the Litani River as its last line of defense.

In Syria, the Assad regime and the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party have collapsed irreversibly. In its aftermath, the remnants of the regime focus on resistance operations in Alawite areas to prevent the new rulers from consolidating power. However, with no immediate motivation to fight, splintered armed groups in Iraq are under internal and external constraints. Meanwhile, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, battered by Israeli, American, and British strikes, clings to survival along the Red Sea, launching occasional attacks when possible.

The situation in the West Bank is even grimmer. Lacking the means for sustainable resistance, it faces the grim reality of collective suicide—along with what remains of Palestinian leadership symbols.

As for Russia, the key ally of Iran’s axis, it has suffered a strategic blow with the loss of the Assad regime on the Mediterranean. Russia, preoccupied with its war in Ukraine and its struggles in Donbas and Kursk, could do little to prevent Assad’s rapid fall despite its extensive support. Now, it scrambles to salvage its waning influence in Syria, forming agreements with Turkey, the new rulers of Syria, and, possibly, Donald Trump’s incoming administration.

Political Options

Despite Netanyahu’s military achievements, he faces a critical failure in answering the question: “What’s next?” Two million Palestinians in Gaza remain trapped, suffocating in a space too small to contain them. Netanyahu cannot impose direct military rule over them, expel them, or transfer them to anyone else, except perhaps his nemesis, Mahmoud Abbas. Yet even Abbas has been tainted by accusations of war crimes from the highest legal institutions. And Hamas, with its 100 hostages, remains a thorn in Netanyahu’s side, preventing him from declaring absolute victory.
In southern Lebanon, a 60-day withdrawal deadline looms for Israeli forces. Residents of Hezbollah’s stronghold areas will rebuild their destroyed towns, and Hezbollah will likely reemerge faster than expected. The group’s fighters and popular base remain rooted in these communities, making its resurgence almost inevitable within a few years, despite monitoring mechanisms in place.
With Assad’s regime gone, the once stable border with Israel, maintained for half a century, has vanished. Assad’s reliance on Iran and Hezbollah was never about reclaiming the Golan Heights but rather about preserving his regime. In his absence, Syria has opened its doors to a myriad of armed factions under Turkish sponsorship. The losers in the Syrian conflict will not accept this new reality, and within weeks, Syria could descend into unprecedented chaos. Instead of dealing with a state, Israel may find itself managing the fallout from a fragmented country.
Iran, the head of the axis, now faces two paths:
1. The Revolutionary Guard and the Conservative Camp: Advocating for the restoration of the Axis of Resistance in its entirety.
2. The Reformist Camp and the Presidency: Favoring diplomacy and adapting to the changing realities on the ground, especially with Donald Trump’s arrival in office, to avoid giving Netanyahu a pretext to attack Iran’s nuclear program.

Conclusions and Takeaways

It will be difficult for Israel to frame its wars as unqualified successes. A ceasefire in Gaza appears imminent, tied to progress in hostage negotiations. This will prevent Israel from claiming total victory and leave Hamas’s remnants intact, at least for the short term.
Hezbollah remains a significant player in Lebanon, despite its losses, and is unlikely to disappear from the scene anytime soon.
Iran’s Supreme Leader will likely adopt a balanced approach, restraining both conservative and reformist factions. A low-profile strategy to rebuild the axis away from public scrutiny may be the most viable course of action.
The Houthis will remain in the crosshairs of both Israel and the U.S., given their continued threats to international shipping in the Red Sea and their missile and drone capabilities.
The Iraqi government will likely be tasked with controlling armed groups, having recently succeeded in curbing their involvement in Syria and securing its borders.
Chaos remains the defining feature across these fronts. All eyes now turn to Donald Trump’s presidency, with his promises to end Middle Eastern wars likely to clash with Netanyahu’s plans, leaving Israel trapped in the "fish soup" crafted by Iran’s "carpet weaver."