لحظة ادراك

I Respect You, But I Do Not Love You

I could find no words more fitting to describe what appeared on the screens of the Arab world’s first channel, the “Spring and Autumn Island,” with bold headlines proclaiming the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, than a phrase once uttered by the late Syrian President Hafez al-Assad to the late Palestinian leader Salah Khalaf (Abu Iyad): “I respect you, but I do not love you.” To which the Palestinian leader replied with sharp wit, preserving a delicate balance: “It is enough for me that you respect me, Mr. President; as for love, God created it for women.”

This phrase perfectly encapsulated the complex relationship between the Syrian regime and the Palestinian people in all their diversity, characterized by oscillations and mixed emotions.

The Palestinian discourse surrounding the implications of the Syrian regime’s fall for the Palestinian cause will remain contentious. Some will highlight the regime’s contributions to the Palestinian cause, focusing on the half-full glass. Others will emphasize its shortcomings, pointing to the empty half. Between these two perspectives lies a long history of intertwined legacies. The Assad family’s reign, spanning over half a century, has left pivotal moments in this relationship. Ignoring these milestones would lead to a fragmented understanding of the era and its impact on the Palestinian cause, as well as the outcomes of the regime's collapse. Consequently, projecting the future of the Palestinian cause under new leadership remains uncertain without a comprehensive view of the situation. Below is a summary of the critical dimensions:

1. Palestinian Refugees in Syria:
   According to January 2022 statistics from UNRWA, 9.7% of the 5.9 million registered Palestinian refugees worldwide lived in Syria across nine officially recognized camps and two unofficial ones. These refugees, holding Syrian documentation confirming their Palestinian origins, enjoyed the same privileges as Syrian citizens for decades.
2. Palestinian Relations with the Syrian Regime:
   Like Syrians, Palestinians’ relationships with the regime depended on their daily experiences, personal interests, and the regime's stance on their cause and displacement. This shaped the regime’s interactions with Palestinian resistance factions based in Syria. Some factions were favored, while others were alienated, depending on their alignment with the regime’s ideology, which was intolerant of independent decision-making or differing perspectives.
3. Clashes with Palestinian Factions:
   The regime had several confrontations with the Palestinian factions, most notably Fatah. These clashes resulted in arrests of Fatah leaders, including Yasser Arafat. Hafez al-Assad even demanded that Arafat carry out assassinations of Lebanese nationalist leaders and Syrian dissidents, which Arafat refused. This led to direct conflict, internal divisions within Fatah, and the handing over of its offices and resources to defectors. This prompted Arafat to famously declare, “The snows of Mount Hermon are warmer than the embrace of the Syrian regime.”

A similar scenario occurred with Hamas. Despite initially enjoying significant privileges under the regime, Hamas was expelled from Damascus for expressing criticism of the regime’s actions following the outbreak of the Syrian revolution. Hamas only returned after Iranian intervention and a shift in its stance to align with the regime’s expectations.

4. The Regime’s Dual Role in Regional Conflicts:
   Since the 1974 armistice agreement, the Syrian-Israeli border became one of Israel’s quietest frontiers. While the regime supported resistance movements in Lebanon and Palestine, it avoided direct confrontations with Israel on its own soil. The rise of Iranian influence and Hezbollah’s expansion into Syria altered this balance, making Syria a direct arena of confrontation with Israel.
5. Impact on Palestinians During the Syrian Conflict:
   The Syrian conflict, which erupted in 2011, deeply affected Palestinians. Some factions sided with the regime, while others opposed it, leading to internal divisions. Tens of thousands of Palestinians in Syria who supported the opposition were displaced, thousands were killed, and hundreds were detained. After the regime’s collapse, Palestinians who fought alongside it may face retaliation and the loss of privileges granted by the regime.
6. Future Palestinian-Syrian Relations:
   Official Palestinian alignment with the Syrian regime before its fall and public statements supporting it will undoubtedly influence future relations. Efforts will be needed to address the entrenched perceptions among segments of the Syrian population.
7. Shifting Dynamics in the "Resistance Axis":
   The collapse of the Syrian regime represents a significant shift within the so-called “resistance axis.” The fall of the Assad regime severs Iran’s geographic connection to Hezbollah in Lebanon, impacting both Lebanese and Palestinian resistance movements.
8. Emerging Leadership in Post-Regime Syria:
   Early indicators, such as the rise of figures like Abu Muhammad al-Julani (with roots in al-Qaeda) or Ahmad al-Sharaa, suggest that post-regime leadership may lean toward a hybrid model of political Islam influenced by Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP).
9. Israel’s Role:
   Israel’s involvement in dismantling Iranian and Hezbollah influence in Syria has shaped public perceptions. Many Syrians on both sides of the conflict view Israeli actions as pivotal in enabling armed groups to succeed against the regime.
10. Geopolitical Consequences:
    Israel's unilateral annulment of the 1974 armistice agreement, its occupation of new Syrian territories, and its maneuvers to establish a long-term presence in the Golan Heights signal new potential conflicts.
11. Turkey’s Dominance:
    Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, holds significant influence over the future of Syria. Global powers, including the United States, play a critical role in shaping Turkey’s efforts, especially considering the Kurdish alliance with the U.S. and American military bases in strategic Syrian regions.
12. Arab States’ Absence:
    The Arab world remains notably absent from shaping Syria’s future. After laboriously reintegrating the Syrian regime into Arab institutions, its collapse leaves a void that regional powers like Turkey are poised to fill.

Conclusion:

The nascent Syrian state emerging from the regime’s collapse requires time for thorough evaluation. Initial signs, such as the relative absence of sectarian violence, are reassuring. However, key factors will determine its success:

• Avoiding a religious or sectarian foundation for governance.
• Rejecting authoritarian practices against political opponents.
• Ensuring equal representation of all ethnic, religious, and cultural groups in state institutions.
• Prioritizing meritocracy over political affiliations in leadership roles.

As Winston Churchill once said, “You make fools your leaders, then ask why the ruin came.” Without these principles, failure is inevitable, ushering in further years of hardship.