لحظة ادراك

Today, Saturday, December 14, 2024, the Jordanian city of Aqaba hosted the first Arab meeting of the Arab Contact Committee on Syria. The committee consists of the foreign ministers of Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Lebanon, with the addition of foreign ministers from Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, and the Secretary-General of the Arab League. The aim is to formulate an Arab stance regarding the events in Syria over the past two weeks, including the fall of the Syrian regime and the opposition's control over the majority of Syrian territories.

This will be followed by another meeting between the Arab group and the U.S. Secretary of State, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, the Turkish Foreign Minister, and the UN envoy to Syria.

The Syrian Scene on the Eve of the Meeting:

Dramatic collapse of the Syrian regime and its military forces within eleven days shocked observers and analysts alike. The speed of events caught official Arab leaderships, and even the planners of this offensive, off guard.
Limited incidents of assassinations and revenge killings occurred, considering the decades of grievances built up during the 13 years of revolution and the preceding 54 years of rule by the Assad family, despite the ongoing revelations of atrocities in the country.
Reassurance messages by Ahmed Al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani), the leader of the military operations, aimed at both domestic and international audiences. He emphasized that the new Syria would be open to the world, inclusive of all its components, with no revenge policies and full justice during the transitional period.
Widespread popular support for the change across Syria's 14 governorates, reflecting a strong desire for a better future. However, some fears about the unknown persist among parts of the population.
Announcement of a single-color interim government led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, headed by Mohamed Al-Bashir, a member of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. This government faced heavy criticism for its exclusivity, lack of female representation, and its focus solely on Sunni leadership. While some understand the urgency of the situation, these issues raised concerns both domestically and internationally.
Turkey at the forefront of the Syrian transition, providing leadership and support while advocating for Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham internationally. Turkey has actively engaged with key players, including the U.S., Western powers, and even Russia, to avoid military clashes with their forces in Syria. They also negotiated with Kurdish factions, supported by the U.S., to expand their influence and solidify control.
A symbolic Turkish-Qatari delegation was the first to arrive in Damascus, celebrating victory in Umayyad Square. The visit carried clear messages that Turkey's involvement would extend beyond this initial transition and that significant Qatari financial aid is on its way. The Muslim Brotherhood, with Turkish and Qatari backing, appears poised to shape the new political order.
Declining Russian role and diminished Iranian influence: Both countries are scrambling to mitigate the fallout and establish channels with Syria's new leaders. However, their efforts may fail, in which case alternative plans are likely to emerge.
Israel's foundational role in this shift cannot be ignored. Its repeated strikes against Iranian assets in Syria and Lebanon, as well as Syrian regime forces, created the opportunity for armed groups to act. This culminated in Israel's unilateral nullification of the Disengagement Agreement with Syria, its control over large parts of the Golan Heights, and systematic destruction of Syria's strategic military assets. These actions signal to Syria's new rulers that the post-Assad era will not resemble the past.

The Arab League’s Priorities in the Coming Days and Weeks:

Preserving Syria's territorial integrity will top the strategic agenda, as a fragmented Syria — similar to the Yemeni or Libyan scenario — would benefit Israel the most, allowing it to deal with Syria as disjointed, conflicting entities.
Ensuring inclusivity in governance by integrating Syria's 17 components into the political system. Single-party or single-sect rule has proven to be disastrous, and excluding groups may lead to separatist movements and self-rule initiatives, particularly among Kurds.
Reorganizing Syria’s army, security forces, and state institutions without political or sectarian bias. Inclusion must extend to former army and security members not implicated in major crimes.
Maintaining neutrality in regional and international alliances, as Syria’s diverse social fabric cannot withstand further division. The Arab world should avoid repeating the Iranian-Russian intervention model, which accelerated the regime’s fall, by favoring new alliances that could similarly polarize Syria.
Avoiding the establishment of a religious state: The recent surge of mosque-centered mobilizations and speeches by the interim prime minister and Al-Jolani has raised alarms domestically and internationally. A religious state could lead to inevitable disaster.
Monitoring the Muslim Brotherhood's moves, which now seeks to dominate governance and align the Syrian revolution with its agenda. This mirrors the Egyptian revolution’s trajectory, which plunged the country into years of turmoil.
Moderating transitional justice efforts: Retaliatory actions resembling the regime’s oppressive methods must be avoided. Some current abuses stem from the sudden regime collapse and the lack of legal enforcement mechanisms.
Addressing Israeli aggression: Israel's exploitation of Syria's weakness and regime collapse highlights the urgency of forming a recognized government capable of defending Syria's sovereignty through immediate political engagements.
Reviving Syria’s devastated economy: Even before the regime’s fall, Syria faced economic ruin. Rapid Arab and international intervention is essential to prevent internal societal collapse, including rising crime fueled by widespread poverty and the proliferation of weapons.
Accelerating constitutional reforms: Drafting a new constitution to define the state's framework and the social contract is vital. It must gain widespread acceptance to pave the way for presidential and parliamentary elections.

Conclusion:

The mere convening of this meeting reflects significant Arab interest in Syria’s central role in the region. Holding it in Jordan, a neighboring state, adds momentum and weight. The international presence further underscores the urgency. However, Syria's complex internal dynamics and the numerous international stakeholders involved, particularly those negatively affected by the regime's fall, may delay a resolution. Without swift action, Syria risks falling into prolonged chaos and becoming yet another failed state.