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Between the Hammer of the Government of Legends & the Anvil of the Crescent of Rubble and Rust

Five hundred days of death and destruction have been enough to bring about profound changes in the Middle East. The region’s geopolitical maps are being reshaped, with some parties striving to cement their influence for decades to come, others seeking to mitigate these effects to the same extent and for the same reasons, and still others refusing to acknowledge the results for equally significant reasons. However, between the boundaries of what is possible and impossible, the ball is now in the court of the official Arab system, after the jester of politics and history—along with the new White House occupant—threw it their way, escaping from election fever promises about stopping all wars within hours and claiming ownership of the new Riviera shores after displacing its people upon winning the elections. His advisors are now struggling in vain to manage the repercussions of his endless absurdities.

The body language of the Jordanian monarch, as captured by the media during his meeting with the jester of politics and history, was telling enough—it said everything. The suffocation he felt was exactly what the world witnessed. From being thrown a burning ball into the lap of the "big sister" (Egypt) with a project being prepared for regional settlement, to receiving 2,000 children for humanitarian and medical reasons—meaning 2,000 families, which, in numbers, amounts to around 10,000 displaced people—Jordan is hosting them voluntarily, not forcibly. As for the rest of the files, they are a collective Arab responsibility, to be carried by the "big sister’s" president during his postponed visit to the White House after the upcoming Arab summit. The summit’s final political statement has already been drafted in Riyadh, in the absence of those primarily affected—under the pretext that their stance is known, so their presence is unnecessary. Some key countries objected to the presence of certain figures, insisting that those who control the ground and arms must participate equally with those holding legal authority.

The tracks of Benjamin Netanyahu’s tanks have drawn the new geopolitical boundaries. He has expanded into Syrian lands as needed at this stage, retained strategic hills in southern Lebanon essential to his military maneuvers, and positioned his tanks at the edges of Gaza’s neighborhoods, ready to dismember it again once the Arab summit concludes. Meanwhile, Arab leaders are given a chance to dismantle Hamas’ rule and disarm it voluntarily. His unused tanks now patrol the streets of Jenin, and soon, they will be in Tulkarm—gradually reaching every Palestinian city. There’s no rush; the work is progressing step by step. Evacuating refugee camps continues—40,000 people so far in just one month. In another six months, the mission will be complete. As for UNRWA and the symbolism of the right of return, they are considered practically obsolete by the government of legends, with its structures being dismantled.

The "people of the flood" (Hamas) have staged their weekly theatrical performances celebrating a "great victory," elevating three prisoners to embody every possible symbol of pride, strength, and resilience. However, they played right into Netanyahu’s hands when they handed over the last two batches of captives in bulk, allowing him to open a full account against all their symbolic gestures. The response was the suspension of prisoner exchanges after he had already secured all living captives from the first ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Hezbollah held a farewell festival for two of its former leaders in a show of strength, gathering hundreds of thousands of supporters—though notably without a single weapon or even a wooden rifle on display. Even Israeli warplanes hovered above the celebration, while the current Secretary-General recycled old speeches that his predecessor once knew how to deliver in a way that stirred the instincts of his audiences, promising them Haifa and beyond, and boasting about Israel being weaker than a spider’s web.

After being reined in by his advisors, the jester of politics and history generously granted Arabs a "model idea"—labeling displacement as just a "concept"—while waiting to see if the upcoming Arab conference would produce more practical ideas that wouldn’t deviate much from his model. On the ground, however, he fully endorses everything his political conman partner, Netanyahu, says and does. Thus, emptying the ceasefire agreement of any obligations—such as withdrawal and returning to the pre-October 7th status quo—is permissible, reducing it to mere prisoner exchanges, food shipments, and humanitarian aid that doesn’t compromise security. As for Iran, it remains in a state of neither war nor peace, with minor flexibilities in hosting delegations from the Crescent of Rubble and Rust, offering "gifts of victory" to the "Savior of Time" in Gaza and Lebanon in exchange for continued economic relief through illicit oil trade whenever possible.

The Arab Summit’s miraculous final statement is now fully prepared—with an eloquent introduction emphasizing the weight of the moment, the blood of martyrs, and the sacrifices of grieving families, the wounded, and the displaced. It is crafted to neither provoke nor fully satisfy the jester of politics and history. His "brilliant ideas" will be politely acknowledged, though deemed more suitable for a different place and time. Meanwhile, his political conman partner (Netanyahu) will be enticed with the prospect of open Arab cities offering coexistence, peace, and harmony—if only he restores the pre-flood order and considers, at least in principle, a solution for the Palestinians. As for the direct stakeholders, the punishment for the legal authority will be the reinstatement of a recently reshuffled government to govern over piles of rubble and death—an arrangement pushed by the "people of the flood" so they can share governance from behind a curtain. Those who "didn’t foresee the consequences of the flood" will be exiled as guests in distant lands, and their weapons handed over to a multinational committee.

All the key players—from start to finish—know that the conflict has been reopened with no foreseeable resolution that aligns with prevailing logic. Between Israel’s overwhelming power, emboldened by unconditional White House support, and the delusional belief of the Crescent of Rubble and Rust in its own victories and ability to shift regional dynamics, there exists a deep chasm that neither Arab declarations nor current strategies can bridge. Who still believes that Israel’s current government—or any opposition party—would ever accept a two-state solution voluntarily? And can the Arab system truly put an end to the Crescent’s influence and its regional arms?

The next phase of the conflict is inevitable. The bloodshed and hatred fueled by Netanyahu and his regional adversaries have reached unprecedented levels. Iran has deeply embedded its interests in the region—at least 200,000 Lebanese depend entirely on its patronage, and Hamas, along with other factions, has become inextricably linked to its influence. On the other side, Netanyahu has spent three decades cultivating fear and insecurity among Israelis, making them increasingly resistant to any political solution. In the end, both sides now have a shared interest in perpetuating conflict—maintaining controlled engagement rather than outright resolution. For Netanyahu, defanging Hamas and Hezbollah is far more critical than forging Arab peace agreements that would lead to a Palestinian state. After all, the "terror threat" narrative has served him well for three decades—it remains a useful tool, albeit one requiring adjustments in strategic execution.

The Arab system now faces an unprecedented crisis. All previous policies have failed to alter regional trajectories, and despite all recent upheavals, the United States remains unwavering in its support for Israel, while Israel continues rejecting land-for-peace deals. Meanwhile, Iran and its allies continue using regional populations as human shields for their interests. If the Arab world persists with outdated approaches—without exerting real pressure on the U.S. or reassessing its ties with Israel and Iran—nothing will change. If Arab leaders take decisive action, they may finally break free from the cycle of perpetual crisis. Otherwise, they will remain trapped in an inferno that spares no one.