لحظة ادراك

 Trump and the Business of Speculation

When you wake up to a political stance or an executive order, only to end the day with something entirely different, know that you’ve entered the realm of a land of wonders and absurdities in the era of its new ruler — the speculator Donald Trump, who shifts his positions as frequently as he changes his neckties: dark-colored in the morning, flamboyant by evening. Nations and individuals may be deemed great and promising by dawn, only to be branded evil and cursed by dusk. Promises once unmade find a way to become reality. No domestic or foreign issue has escaped his touch without being turned into a model of chaos and ridicule.

His own administration’s officials, members of Congress, and even world leaders now chase behind him, unable to tell what he wants or where he stands. He runs public affairs and U.S. foreign policy like a partner in a speculative trade business, one dealing in warehouses crammed with obsolete, unsellable goods. And if a newcomer dares inspect these wares as mere scrap—suitable only for recycling—Trump haggles for the highest price. Should the buyer turn away, Trump sends in the small-time brokers to convince him of the deal’s merits, offering half-price discounts for “partners,” but never deducting a single cent from his own share.

Anyone who accepts this new definition of political commerce will find themselves inside Trump’s triad of praise: “Great, Promising, Important.” Those who don’t? They fall into its absolute opposite: “Evil, Hopeless, Mad.”

Who can believe Trump publicly contradicting his own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, whom he personally appointed, regarding Iran’s nuclear status? Who can reconcile his praise for Elon Musk — once a “great man” ushered through the White House gates to crush the Deep State — with his later portrayal of him as a crazed, drug-abusing outcast? Anyone who takes a single word Trump says at face value should understand: he lies as naturally as he breathes.

He’s a “winner”… always and under any circumstances. Defeat simply does not exist in his vocabulary — even if the price of avoiding it is borne by the United States and its highest national interests. He pulled out of the nuclear deal in 2018, when Iran was enriching uranium at no more than 3.67%, using primitive centrifuges, under tight international inspection, and with only a basic ballistic missile program. By 2024, during Trump’s second term, he finds Iran enriching uranium to over 60% by official claims — potentially 90% unofficially — with no oversight, advanced centrifuges, and a missile program capable of striking the financial nerve center of Tel Aviv, for which Israel has few defenses.

The Iranians barely had time to forget the “Day 61” symphony before Trump astonished them again the next morning, demanding their unconditional surrender. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei replied that Trump knows nothing about the people he’s asking to surrender. Then came the White House Press Secretary, the charming Caroline Leavitt, delivering contradictory messages in Trump’s name. She claimed he would decide within 14 days whether to join the war, adding that there was an "unmissable opportunity" for a deal in the same period. But what did “within” mean? Less or more than 14 days? Was it the time Netanyahu requested to finish the war he started? Or the time European diplomats asked to negotiate political concessions based on the fallout of the military operations — a deal whose language had already been massaged and manipulated?

With the Iranian bazaar trader, negotiations could take months, even years, before being ultimately rejected — and most importantly, negotiations should never occur under fire.

Some analysts conveniently blame this chaos on MAGA — "Make America Great Again" — and its leaders who pressure Trump to withdraw from global affairs and redirect spending to domestic concerns. But MAGA seems unaware that America’s greatness was established decades ago, independent of foreign entanglements, powered by U.S. fleets projecting influence across the globe.

In reality, there’s ample evidence that Trump uses MAGA as a smokescreen to justify his speculative trader logic. He offers Israel everything it needs to outmatch Iran and will continue to do so until Iran is weakened to the point it can no longer sustain confrontation. Only then — when military operations near their conclusion and the risk approaches zero — will Trump step in, claim leadership of the military scene, and snatch the glory of victory. This strategy is unprecedented in U.S.–Israeli relations.

The U.S. knows that dismantling Iran’s nuclear program is beyond Israel’s solo capabilities, yet prolongs the war, letting Israel absorb massive losses. If this is how the U.S. treats its closest ally, what awaits those who bet on America but mean far less?

Europe fares no better. On the sidelines of the G7 summit, European leaders asked Trump for a window to negotiate with Iran before the U.S. commits to war — hoping to leverage military pressure into diplomatic gains. Trump granted the request, but tied their hands to ensure failure. The list of demands handed to Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi effectively meant surrender: not only halting uranium enrichment on Iranian soil but also dismantling its missile program and severing ties with all its regional allies. Meanwhile, Trump publicly encouraged Europe’s effort, while simultaneously telling Iran that negotiating with Europe was pointless — that only the U.S. could offer a real deal. He even tried to tempt Vladimir Putin with a Ukraine-Iran swap deal, praising any effort to stop the war under U.S. terms while, in the same breath, urging Putin to stick to Ukraine and forget about Iran.

Trump wouldn’t have been able to manipulate the entire world like this if it weren’t for the political vacuum — even drought — in serious leadership within the U.S. and globally. The liberal current represented by the Democratic Party is in deep crisis after losing the last election, with Trump controlling the White House, the Senate, and the House. They endure daily public insults and mockery. If they choose to protest in the streets, Trump would not hesitate to deploy the National Guard or even the Marines — possibly plunging the country into civil war. The signs were evident in recent California events, which only deescalated when organizers pulled back.

Their only hope now is to wait for the upcoming midterm elections, almost a year away — with all the dangers such a wait entails. If American leaders are in such a dire state, the world’s other leaders are no better off. Just recently, the world watched Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly humiliated. Trump mocks world leaders whenever he can, even those who paid him billions in their own homes.

With these repeated incidents going unchallenged, Trump sees a clear path to advance his policies.

Trump’s logic in managing alliances is no different from the Iranian bazaar trader — albeit with more polish. From the first hours of the October 7 events, Iran also engaged in speculative politics. One faction donned military uniforms, calling it “sacred vengeance” for Qasem Soleimani, while another — in civilian clothes — claimed ignorance. This gave Iran room to maneuver and justify its inaction, insisting it would only intervene directly if its own interests were harmed.

Thus, its allies were left to be slaughtered one by one. Hamas and Gaza were destroyed. Southern Lebanon became uninhabitable. The Assad regime in Syria fell and was replaced by one wholly hostile to Iran. Yemen’s strategic assets and vital arteries are next. All of this came at the cost of sacrificing allies to preserve the Iranian regime. And so it must be understood — especially by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, mastermind of Iran’s regional militias — that after the deaths of Hassan Nasrallah and Ismail Haniyeh, he will be next. One cannot destroy the branches and leave the root intact. His survival is now a matter of time — dictated by the chaos in his own country — until a replacement for Iran’s ruling system is ready.

He once helped topple Iraq’s regime in exchange for a sectarian government along his western border. He coexisted with U.S. bases in the region for years while clinging to empty slogans like “Death to America and Israel.” Now he must face the consequences of this speculative game. Even if Khamenei still believes he can save his regime by giving up uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, the old game is over. Netanyahu did not enter this war — incurring all these losses — just to let the Iranian regime survive.

In conclusion:

As Donald Trump, the king of speculation, flips the green switch to ignite a conflict between a nuclear-armed state and another on the brink of nuclear capability — both ideologically and militarily intoxicated — in a region vital to global energy, with no ethical limits, you must understand: the worst is yet to come. This bone-crushing, zero-sum battle, now a week old, signals that both sides are headed to the bitter end: either the fall of Iran’s regime or the survival of Israel as a state in this region.

Until then… to be continued.