لحظة ادراك

A Sparrow Parents a Starling—and Together They Soar

This popular Iraqi proverb—“A sparrow sponsors a starling, and both take flight”—aptly describes the current state of Middle Eastern affairs. It refers to two alike—fraudsters supporting fraudsters, liars praising each other’s lies. Recently, Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump held a private summit in an exclusive meeting room over dinner, far from the Oval Office theatrics and behind-the-scenes traps and ambushes. Carefully selected journalists were present to capture the moment without spoiling its intimacy.

Amid lavish mutual flattery, Netanyahu presented Trump with the letter he had sent to the Nobel Peace Prize committee, endorsing Trump’s candidacy. In return, Trump asked Israeli authorities to pardon Netanyahu’s corruption charges and honor him as a hero of Israel. The irony is palpable: a man indicted on corruption in his own country, wanted by the International Criminal Court, nominating his counterpart for a peace prize.

Trump deflected all regional questions to Netanyahu, acknowledging that Netanyahu knew the Middle East intimately—so whatever he asked for, Trump would deliver. They agreed a “new Middle East” era begins: a peace backed by power, with no turning back. With that, stealth jets know the route to Tehran—and may soon fly over Yemen’s caves.

A Misleading Media Ploy

About a month ago, Trump visited three Gulf countries. Speculation by American and Israeli media hinted at a widening rift between Trump and Netanyahu—Israel was conspicuously omitted. Arab analysts prematurely read this as a strategic realignment. But once the media attention waned, it became clear it was all disinformation, designed to safeguard Trump’s Gulf tour from Arab criticism, amid widespread humanitarian carnage in Gaza under American political cover. The message was: yes, the U.S. disapproves of Israel’s policies—but don’t assume Trump and Netanyahu are estranged.

Deeper Coordination Behind the Scenes

Strategic planning between the U.S. and Israel went deeper than public media portrayed. Israel launched powerful strikes against Iran with U.S. coordination, using American F‑35s to devastate Iran’s nuclear program—cooperating behind the scenes even as Oman mediated silence in public.

No Fixed Plan—but Many Critical Questions

Netanyahu’s arrival in Washington carried no fixed agenda—only open-ended strategic discussions:

What comes beyond the 12-day Iranian conflict? Is the damage to their nuclear and missile programs irreversible?
What are the outcomes of a 60-day Gaza truce? Can negotiations with Hamas remove critical power sources?
How long must Hezbollah’s weapons remain? No internal Lebanese solution has emerged yet.
What about the Red Sea and the Houthis, seemingly impervious to U.S.–Israeli strikes?
Will Syria’s leadership be willing to normalize with Israel?
What about Jordan and Egypt—will they accept Gaza’s population shifting across their borders?
Will parts of the West Bank be annexed?

It’s clear Trump heavily values Israel’s strategic assessment—perhaps even more than U.S. intelligence—because Israeli security has shown deeper penetration into Iranian capabilities and inflicted damage the U.S. could not, marking this as a cornerstone for future regional strategy.

The Impossible Request for “Guarantees”

Recently, Iranian-aligned actors—Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas—have sought “guarantees” from the U.S. Yet they know Trump only offers guarantees for Israel. Moving the conversation from outright rejection to a hope for unavailable guarantees is a strategic move, but short-term only. It fails to address the deep, systemic destabilization afflicting Iran and its network post-October, signaling the need for policy overhaul—not superficial reassurances.

Israel–U.S. Relations Reach Unprecedented Heights

Under Trump, coordination between Israel and the U.S. has exceeded past limits. Only weeks before departure, Netanyahu praised the relationship as unmatched by any U.S. administration. Trump even intervened in Israel’s judiciary to delay Netanyahu’s trial—an international precedent—calling him “a hero of Israel.” Those still hoping for U.S. guarantees should beware: the worst may be yet to come.

Widespread Devastation Leaves No Buyers for Military Victory

After twenty months of conflict, the fallout surpasses the battlefield. Hamas underestimated the destruction aligned with the October events, as did Israel misjudge the war’s duration and scope. As threats multiplied, so did regional consequences, weakening ideological and strategic coherence across parties.

Despite Israel’s military achievements, its value falters in the regional political marketplace. Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas—none acknowledge Israeli dominance. Even distant powers—Egypt, Jordan, the Gulf, Turkey, Europe—won’t validate it. All share the belief that a right-wing Israeli government will only escalate expansion and dominance, not peace. Thus, there will be no propping up of military “victory.”

Endless Conflicts Are the Legacy of Trump–Netanyahu

Whether with Jerusalem, Golan, the “Deal of the Century,” or the Abraham Accords, it all led to strategic build-up—fuel for backlash culminating in October’s incidents. The blockage of Saudi normalization earlier was among the primary causes. Now, even as Washington pushes Israel and its allies to mend ties with Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, or the West Bank, the counterproductive pattern remains: regimes with deep conflict histories don’t embrace expansion, nor lead to peace.

Conclusion: Real Change Requires Real Power

The U.S. cannot reshape the world according to Trump’s vision without owning control over all the levers of change. Its challenges in global markets show that vision alone cannot dominate. Likewise, policies behind Trump rely on financial tokens—empty incentives—to enforce compliance, with the big stick always behind. Middle Eastern states, stripped of sovereign wealth, must hold America accountable. This isn’t a transaction over funds—it’s systemic and existential. Trump’s fleeting alliances—like Elon Musk—are easily abandoned. Any country thinking otherwise would be wise to learn from Musk’s experience.