...When the Circle Tightens
When strategic discussions about the future of a state are moved from its own cabinet rooms to the White House of its patron, it becomes clear you are looking at a state that has lost the ability to determine its own priorities. It will inevitably be forced to accept a reality shaped by its fragility and its incapacity to settle any of its choices. Its priorities will be set for it on a discussion table outside its own borders—borders it has yet to even define.
Between the military establishment, which enjoys national consensus, and a political leadership that enjoys none, most cabinet meetings end in public clashes—arguments that quickly spill into the press. At times, with the prime minister’s approval, some ministers even hold press conferences preempting battlefield outcomes, while the chief of staff leaks alternative readings of the war effort. The result is hurried gatherings in Washington, where allies sit to weigh the consequences of this dysfunction—not only for Israel but for the wider world. They know better than anyone else that military superiority alone is no longer enough to escape the bottleneck this state has driven itself into. After all this killing, destruction, occupation, and expansion—what comes next?
In the Middle East, amid the growing tide of hatred toward Israel worldwide, the real challenge remains existential. The tremors of this conflict cannot be reduced to a sterile phrase—“the day after the Gaza war”. They have become the central question of Israel’s survival and the ways to preserve it—something its allies seem more concerned about than its own leaders. All this unfolds while the September “tsunami” looms, with countries preparing to simultaneously recognize a Palestinian state under international law.
Hypothetical Strategic Discussions – Reading the Minds of Those Present
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Gaza’s Two and a Half Million Palestinians: Living in an environment stripped of all basic human needs, conditions are expected to worsen after the “southward migration” on Gideon-2 carriers. Half the population must somehow be removed, while plans are drafted to rebuild and “stabilize” what remains.
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Managing the Post-Hamas Chaos: With Hamas gone, who will govern Gaza? Which states or individuals would accept to run the territory—without national legitimacy, without international institutions, under a U.S.-sponsored arrangement, and protected by the Israeli army?
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The West Bank: How to merge the official Israeli and American vision of the “Deal of the Century” with the far-right ambitions of Netanyahu’s government? Who will govern once the Palestinian Authority collapses—a body more internationally recognized than the state deciding its fate?
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Other Open Fronts: Hezbollah’s arsenal remains intact; Iran’s nuclear file unresolved; Assad still in Damascus; Yemen’s conflict widening daily. Each of these threads is tied inseparably to the Israeli-Palestinian core conflict.
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Global Repercussions: Growing sympathy for Palestinians among governments, societies, and even within U.S. public opinion. This shift can no longer be hidden—or stopped. Washington and Tel Aviv must devise new measures to contain the fallout as Israel deepens its Gaza operations and settlement expansion in the West Bank.
Strategic Realities That Cannot Be Ignored
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Demographics: Eight million Palestinians now live between the river and the sea: 3.5 million in the West Bank and Jerusalem, 2.5 million in Gaza, and 2 million within Israel itself. Their numbers match—and may soon surpass—the Jewish population, not counting millions more in exile waiting for a settlement.
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Legitimacy of the PLO: Since Oslo, the Palestine Liberation Organization has acquired overwhelming international legitimacy as the sole representative of the Palestinian people. Its recognition of Israel opened the door for Israel’s entry into the Arab and Islamic world. Reversing the tide of international recognition of Palestine is nearly impossible.
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Global Consensus: Outside the United States under Trump, no country in the world is willing to collude in mass Palestinian expulsion or administer their future without the PLO.
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Israel’s Dilemma: Israel cannot annex 6 million Palestinians into its population, nor leave them in perpetual chaos next door, nor outsource their governance without full reoccupation—a cost it neither wants nor can afford.
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One Century of Conflict: For 100 years, the Israeli-Palestinian struggle has been the magnet of all Middle Eastern crises. Partial deals and side agreements have consistently failed, deepening instability instead of reducing it.
Conclusion
You may kill, demolish, seize land, build settlements, redraw maps, and displace tens of thousands of people. You may starve and impoverish them, manufacture fake representatives, and use U.S. backing to block their entry into the United Nations.
But what has become impossible is controlling the will of a people determined to win freedom and liberation from occupation. They remain the “hard number” in the equation of war and peace. Every method of denying them has been tried—except one: a sincere recognition of their legitimate rights.
Until that day comes, the logic of events dictates one thing: Israel must change. For Israel to change, its patron must also change. For America to change, the Arab, Islamic, and wider free world must first change—by leaving behind dependence on Washington and the volatile moods of its rulers.
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